4/02/2019

Chasing Amazon Is Nothing but Bad News for Walmart Stock

Walmart (NYSE:WMT) has been chasing and emulating Amazon for way too long, and it’s only a matter of time before it really begins to weigh on Walmart stock.

walmart stock wmt stockwalmart stock wmt stockSource: Shutterstock

CEO Doug McMillon is Captain Ahab and Amazon.Com (NASDAQ:AMZN) is his Moby Dick. Since becoming CEO of the Arkansas-based retailing giant in 2014, McMillon has been trying to steal Amazon’s crown as the way America eShops.

Under his guidance, Walmart bulked-up the tech group in Silicon Valley, then in 2016 the company bought Jet.Com, an innovative etailer, and handed its CEO, Marc Lore, the keys to its electronic kingdom.

Since then the shares have gained 33%, and revenues have grown by $30 billion. The problem is, going from $485 billion to $514 billion is just a 6% gain. Between 2016 and early 2018, ecommerce sales did indeed grow faster than Amazon’s etailing numbers. Then numbers got bigger and growth sagged,

Rather than arguing about how Walmart’s Ahab is chasing Moby Dick, what should be asked is why chase Moby Dick at all.

Chasing Amazon and Walmart Stock

If Amazon jumped off the Empire State Building tomorrow, Walmart might be right behind it.

Amazon has its Prime Video and Fire stick. Walmart has its Vudu video and Vudu stick. Amazon has a tablet to keep people in its ecosystem. Walmart has a tablet to keep people in its ecosystem. Amazon has the Twitch game streaming service, so Walmart is planning its own gaming service.

But Walmart stock was below $100 per share on Mar. 21 because chief technology officer Jeremy King, who built Walmart Labs in California, is stepping down.

King had signed technology partnerships with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). He was often the face of the company when it sought to compare itself to Amazon.

There are analysts who think Walmart’s efforts in ecommerce make it a better buy than Amazon. These people are wrong.


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Walmart is nothing like Amazon, because $30 billion in added sales over two years is growth of just 3% per year. Walmart is supposed to be a stock you buy for income, a dividend of $2.12 per year it takes $6.1 billion to earn back.

In its 2016 fiscal year Walmart had net income of $15 billion. This last year net income was $7.2 billion. Walmart’s dividend was 48 cents per share five years ago. It’s now 52 cents. Based on operating cash flow of $27.7 billion last year the dividend is safe. Based on net income, not so much.

Rather than chase Amazon, Walmart should be chasing Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST), which has been beating its Sams Club down for years now.

There are indications it’s doing that, building its own milk production infrastructure to cut out all middlemen. Walmart has long had a host of store brands, an area where Amazon is only now starting to copy it.

Store brands can define a company, even more than its ecommerce initiatives. Walmart’s store brands fit squarely in the middle class. Amazon’s store brands, like AmazonBasics, tend to be aspirational. Costco’s Kirkland merchandise can be better than what it’s copying.

The Bottom Line on Walmart Stock

Walmart should be focused on delivering store brands with high quality and low prices through control of the supply chain. Squeezing out costs and handing gains back to investors as dividends rather than buying back stock in hopes of creating capital gains, should be the game plan.

That’s what a mature company would do. By chasing Amazon and its big capital gains, Walmart is acting like a man with a mid-life crisis ogling that red sports car and the blonde behind the wheel.

That story never ends well. Walmart needs to grow up.

Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of a new mystery thriller, The Reluctant Detective Finds Her Family, available now at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned shares

3/30/2019

Brokerages initiate coverage on 11 stocks with a 'buy' for double-digit returns

The BSE Sensex has gained more than 3,000 points in about a month driven by banking & financials. Even the FII inflows in March have been unstoppable as they net bought more than Rs 28,000 crore worth of shares.

In February, FIIs had bought assets worth Rs 15,328 crore.

"We are still in a bull run. The recent fall in Sensex and Nifty was an on-going correction as both the indices have sustained above their respective 200 DMAs. The current rally can re-test the previous highs and fresh rally could start once we break the previous peaks of both Nifty & Sensex," Rusmik Oza- Head of Fundamental Research at Kotak Securities told Moneycontrol.

The broader market, which had been underperformer for many months, also saw a bounce back. The Nifty Midcap index has gained more than 10 percent and smallcap index has climbed over 14 percent since February 19.

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With the changing mood in the market, brokerages and analysts also revised their ratings and price targets on some stocks. Nearly 25-30 stocks saw initiation of coverage with a buy  rating from brokerages in March.

Here are 11 stocks where brokerages initiated coverage with a buy call:

Brokerage: Nirmal Bang

UPL: Buy | Target: Rs 1,134 | Return: 25%

Indian generics agrochemicals company UPL is set for robust growth after the recent $4.2 billion all-cash buyout of global competitor Arysta LifeScience Inc.

The Indian multinational is present across the entire crop protection chemicals (CPC) and seeds chain. UPL caters to all categories focused on key crops and geographies, including Latin America (LatAm), its largest market.

UPL is present in 133 countries with 79 percent of its revenues coming from overseas markets. We forecast FY19-21E EPS CAGR of 41 percent for the UPL-Arysta combine (including synergies).

We initiate coverage on UPL with a buy rating and a target price of Rs 1,134.

Indian Hotels Company: Buy | Target: Rs 195 | Return: 29%

We initiate coverage on Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) with a buy rating and a target price of Rs 195 based on 21x FY21E EV/EBITDA.

Our optimism on the stock is based on: 1) Cyclical upturn in the hotel sector along with favourable demand-supply dynamics which are expected to drive the occupancy rate and average room rate (ARR). 2) Aggressive restructuring strategy focused on improving EBITDA margin from 18 percent in FY16 to 25 percent by FY23E.

The key pillars of the aggressive strategy 'Aspirations 2022' are: 1) Expansion of the number of rooms with the shift to an asset-light model leading to increase in management contracts. 2) Cost optimisation. 3) Better management of brands. 4) Leveraging on the Tata Group's strengths. 5) Sale of non-core assets and monetisation of the balance sheet.

Brokerage: Edelweiss

Astral Poly Technik: Buy | Target: Rs 1,490 | Return: 34%

Astral Poly Technik (Astral) is the domestic market leader in the niche CPVC pipes & fittings market. It has ventured in to the adhesives business in 2010-11 and gained significant traction in the same.

The company has also entered the corrugated pipes segment via an acquisition. Innovations, proven track record and execution prowess help Astral further entrench its position in the domestic market and enhance presence in new markets.

It is the only backward integrated CPVC player in India with products related tie-ups with global players, deep distribution network with higher SKUs and sharpened focus on advertisement to deepen customer penetration.

Moreover, a strong balance sheet and estimated free cash flow (FCF) of Rs 230 crore in FY20 offer the option of making more strategic investments sans balance sheet stress.

Hence, we initiate coverage with buy and target price of Rs 1,490, entailing 34 percent upside potential.

Brokerage: Antique Stock Broking

Ganesha Ecosphere: Buy | Target: Rs 440 | Return: 71%

Ganesha Ecosphere (GNPL) has emerged as one of the leading polyethylene terephthalate (PET) recycling companies in India.

We believe that GNPL's business model of giving waste an useful second innings, is well-poised for the next leg of growth, on the back of: (1) a widespread channel network for procurement of raw material (PET bottles), (2) capacity expansion in north India (20 percent of current capacity), (3) greenfield expansion in south India, adding 65 percent of existing capacity, (4) new capacities to catapult the margin and return ratios.

We anticipate, commissioning of new RPSF facilities along-with better RoE/RoCE to be the key catalysts for stock re-rating. We initiate coverage with a buy rating and target price of Rs 440, valuing it at a PE of 12xFY21 earnings (5-year average 10x; high/low - 16x/3x).

Brokerage: Goldman Sachs

HDFC Life: Buy | Target: Rs 488 | Return: 32%

HDFC Life is amongst India's highest quality and most profitable Life insurers given its de-risked business model and its ability to tap into a large Protection profit pool.

On the back of these strengths, we expect HDFC Life to deliver sector-leading NBV growth of 27 percent versus 20 percent for peers over FY19-22E. We initiate HDFC Life at buy with a 12-month target price of Rs 488.

It is the market leader in various pools of protection business such as 1) Online retail protection sales; 2) Critical illness riders, 3) Credit life business and 4) Annuities. Direct channel capabilities combined with access to affluent customers and largest protection product suite will help them deliver 50 percent of incremental profitability.

HDFC Life is better positioned and has better navigated equity market / regulatory uncertainty in the past given its balanced product mix. Even from a distribution perspective; a high proportion of proprietary channel and adoption of open architecture in banca reduce long term risks.

Brokerage: Prabhudas Lilladher

VIP Industries: Buy | Target: Rs 579 | Return: 24%

We initiate coverage on VIP Industries (VIP) with a buy rating given market leadership (around 50 percent revenue share) in the organized luggage industry, well-diversified product portfolio (six brands and multiple SKUs exceeding 1,500) and solid brand salience (brand-ex is around 5-7 percent of sales).

Strong distribution network (around 11,000 touch points), GST implementation (narrowed pricing gap with unorganized players resulting in up-trading) and entry into the under penetrated ladies hand bags and backpack market is likely to drive sales/PAT at a CAGR of 23.7/25.1 percent over FY18-21E.

While headwinds from currency & crude volatility prevail, product premiumisation (rising share of Caprese and Carlton) and increase in production from captive facilities at Bangladesh will aid in 40bps EBITDA margin expansion over FY18-21E.

We expect premium valuations (32.7x FY20E and 25.3x FY21E) to sustain given strong growth prospects, debt free balance sheet, high return ratios (RoE/RoCE of 25.6 /36.9 percent in FY18; to expand by 230bps/310bps over FY18-21E), and healthy dividend pay-out (average 41 percent over last 5 years).

Brokerage: JM Financial

Deepak Nitrite: Buy | Target: Rs 340 | Return: 25%

Deepak Nitrite (DNL) is a leading global player for several niche chemical products which find application in colorants, petrochemicals, agrochemicals, rubber, pharmaceuticals, paper, textile, detergents etc. DNL commissioned its phenol plant on November 1, 2018 and quickly ramped up the utilisation levels to 80 percent.

Management is confident of further improving the utilisation levels to 90 percent in FY20E. On the back of this new project, DNL is expected to report strong earnings growth in FY19E and FY20E. The loss-making performance products segment has been successfully turned around by focusing on higher-value products.

DNL is also expected to report strong improvement in financials and profitability in FY20E. Venturing into phenol and acetone derivative products and continued investment in the standalone segment would further drive the growth beyond FY20E. We initiate coverage on the company with a price target of Rs 340 based on 15x FY21e earnings.

Sanofi India: Buy | Target: Rs 7,000 | Return: 22%

Sanofi India Ltd – a 60.4 percent subsidiary of Sanofi SA, France is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of pharmaceutical products. It has a leadership position in the anti-diabetic therapy market with brands like Lantus & Toujeo, one of largest OTC brands portfolio, distinct therapies in rare disease and API & formulations export to group companies across the world.

The anti-diabetic therapy segment accounts for 27 percent of total sales, and is growing faster than the market while its flagship brand Lantus is the most prescribed basal insulin.

We expect an overall revenue and PAT CAGR of 13.1 percent and 18.5 percent, respectively, and strong FCFF at 88 percent of PAT on a yearly basis over CY18-CY20E. We recommend buy with a target price of Rs 7,000.

ITD Cementation: Buy | Target: Rs 165 | Return: 28%

ITD Cementation (ITDC) is at an inflection point, to drive topline growth based on its diversified strategy to grow in sectors such as marine, transport, airport and water projects.

Its recent strong order wins, improving balance sheet and rebounding / stable EBITDA margins would lead to an increase in the bottomline and better return ratios. The strong order backlog that is well diversified across various segments and strong inflows are expected to drive revenue and PAT CAGR of 23 percent and 25 percent, respectively, over FY19-FY21E.

We initiate coverage on the company with a price target of Rs 165 based on 15x FY21e earnings.

Brokerage: HDFC Securities

Indostar Capital Finance: Buy | Target: Rs 549 | Return: 55%

Promoted and run by professionals, Indostar Capital Finance (INDOSTAR) is an NBFC, with a presence spanning multiple segments (unlike other NBFCs with a monoline business). After commencing operations as a special situation corporate and developer financier, INDOSTAR managed to pull off a transition to retail lending (fashionable).

Between FY12-18, AUMs grew at around 39 percent CAGR (as expected by an NBFC of its size), spearheaded by the corporate segment with ample demand and benign liquidity. Recent growth has been retail driven (SME, VF and housing finance).

Opportunistic and tactile lending by an astute management translated into (1) superior yields (around 15 percent over FY13-18), (2) astounding asset quality (G/NNPAs: 90/60bps), (3) efficient operations and (4) thus lofty RoAAs (4.7 percent, FY13-18). Granular growth will de-risk the overall book, hereon.

Further, the ability to increase leverage will drive RoAEs. At a little over around 1x trailing ABV, valuations are attractive even if we assume significant slippages (unlikely). Initiate coverage with a buy (target price of Rs 549, 1.5xMar-21E ABV of Rs 366).

Brokerage: BP Wealth

Dishman Carbogen Amcis: Buy | Target: Rs 291 | Return: 42%

Dishman Carbogen Amcis (DCAL) has built a healthy order book in CRAMS, which is virtually full of current capacities, and thus the management's focus is shifting to improve profitability. We expect a significant growth in earnings over the next couple of years (earnings CAGR of around 33 percent in FY18-21E), which will aid to generate sizable cash flows.

Apart from Niraparib, there are three to four potential launches in near future, which will not only accelerate growth, but also de-risk earnings from blockbuster products.

The emerging signs of a recovery in Carbogen, robust prospects from Vitamin D business, concentration on sweating off the assets and improving the financial ratios like Debt/Equity and ROCE, gives us confidence on its performance.

Given its significant operating leverage, a pick-up in revenue growth can deliver significant earning up-sides and trigger a rerating. At the current market price (of Rs 210) the company is trading at 13.3x its FY20E consolidated EPS of Rs 15.7 and 10.1x its FY21E consolidated EPS of Rs 20.8.

We believe the valuations are attractive and the stock can give decent returns in the future. Thus, we give a buy rating on the stock by assigning 14x (30 percent discount to Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) 10-year average P/E) of its FY21E earrings and arrive at a target price of Rs 291 for an investment horizon of 12-15 months.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions. First Published on Mar 28, 2019 01:59 pm

3/27/2019

Gold bull sees near-term weakness because the market is 'prematurely pricing in a rate cut'

Metals expert Suki Cooper sees gold prices hitting a speed bump before they can challenge last year's highs.

Cooper, Standard Chartered's executive director of precious metals research, blames it on growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will lower rates within the next 12 months.

"We really think it's the market prematurely pricing in a cut for this year," she said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now."

A rate cut is not expected to happen at this week's Fed meeting. But Wall Street is pricing in a 25 percent chance of a rate cut in December, according to CME's Fed WatchTool. Cooper contends that's providing bearish resistance.

She expects gold prices to average $1,285 in the second quarter. Right now, it's trading just above $1,300 an ounce.

However, Cooper predicts gold will regain its luster once investors realize the Fed isn't moving on interest rates.

"We expect gold to end the year on a strong note," she said. "It's in the fourth quarter that we'll see gold prices testing the highs that we saw in 2018 and 2017 and potentially matching the highs from five years ago."

She estimates the precious metal's prices will average $1,325 in the fourth quarter, just $44 below its 2018 intraday high.

Cooper suggested in late January that it could be gold's year. She still sees ETF demand for the metal and gold-friendly activity surrounding the dollar as a major catalysts behind a second-half bullish move.

"We expect the dollar to weaken," Cooper said. "Also, central banks continue to be buyers as well."

Disclaimer

3/25/2019

Top Insurance Stocks For 2019

tags:XLI,GLMD,GWRE,

Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. reduced its position in Bottomline Technologies (NASDAQ:EPAY) by 48.5% during the second quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 125,825 shares of the technology company’s stock after selling 118,272 shares during the period. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. owned approximately 0.31% of Bottomline Technologies worth $6,270,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.

Other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently modified their holdings of the company. Global X Management Co. LLC boosted its position in Bottomline Technologies by 89.9% during the 1st quarter. Global X Management Co. LLC now owns 46,858 shares of the technology company’s stock worth $1,816,000 after purchasing an additional 22,177 shares during the period. Wells Fargo & Company MN boosted its position in Bottomline Technologies by 167.3% during the 1st quarter. Wells Fargo & Company MN now owns 277,895 shares of the technology company’s stock worth $10,767,000 after purchasing an additional 173,930 shares during the period. Migdal Insurance & Financial Holdings Ltd. purchased a new stake in Bottomline Technologies during the 1st quarter worth $1,349,000. Comerica Bank boosted its position in Bottomline Technologies by 19.3% during the 1st quarter. Comerica Bank now owns 78,184 shares of the technology company’s stock worth $3,149,000 after purchasing an additional 12,626 shares during the period. Finally, SG Americas Securities LLC purchased a new stake in Bottomline Technologies during the 1st quarter worth $103,000. Institutional investors own 97.24% of the company’s stock.

Top Insurance Stocks For 2019: Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By ]

    Shares of the Industrials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI) returned 28% over the year to mid-February and the sector trades a premium of 22% on its long-term forward multiple.

  • [By Todd Shriber, ETF Professor]

    With June being a risk-off kind of month, some cyclical sectors often lag this month. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI), for example, averages June losses of more than 1 percent.

  • [By Todd Shriber, ETF Professor]

    The broader industrial sector has faced challenges this year, but the recent performance of the Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI) indicates some investors are turning positive on the group. XLI, the largest industrial exchange traded fund, is up 5 percent over the past week.

Top Insurance Stocks For 2019: Galmed Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(GLMD)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Shane Hupp]

    Here are some of the media stories that may have effected Accern’s rankings:

    Get Galmed Pharmaceuticals alerts: Galmed Pharmaceuticals’ (GLMD) CEO Allen Baharaff on Q1 2018 Results – Earnings Call Transcript (seekingalpha.com) What You Must Know About Galmed Pharmaceuticals Ltd's (NASDAQ:GLMD) Market Risks (finance.yahoo.com) Obeticholic Acid Market Analysis, Recent Trends and Regional Growth Forecast by Types, Applications and Economic … (theexpertconsulting.com) oholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) Market 2023: Know Marketing Channel Future Trend, Growth and Price with Future … (theexpertconsulting.com) Umbilical Cord Blood May Offer Early FH Diagnosis (medscape.com)

    A number of equities analysts have recently commented on GLMD shares. ValuEngine lowered shares of Galmed Pharmaceuticals from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Wednesday, February 14th. Maxim Group set a $14.00 price target on shares of Galmed Pharmaceuticals and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Wednesday, May 9th. Finally, HC Wainwright lifted their price target on shares of Galmed Pharmaceuticals from $18.00 to $24.00 and gave the stock a “buy” rating in a report on Monday, February 12th. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and four have assigned a buy rating to the company. The company currently has an average rating of “Buy” and an average price target of $20.40.

  • [By George Budwell]

    Shares of the clinical-stage biotech Galmed Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:GLMD) are on absolute fire this morning, thanks to a positive midstage trial readout for its experimental nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) drug Aramchol. Specifically, the company reported that patients receiving the 400 mg dose of Aramchol exhibited a significant reduction in liver fat over the study period compared to those taking a placebo. Curiously, though, patients receiving the higher dose of 600 mg apparently only showed a statistically significant drop in liver fat relative to placebo patients in a post-hoc analysis, according to the press release. 

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Get a free copy of the Zacks research report on Galmed Pharmaceuticals (GLMD)

    For more information about research offerings from Zacks Investment Research, visit Zacks.com

Top Insurance Stocks For 2019: Guidewire Software, Inc.(GWRE)

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Max Byerly]

    Shares of Guidewire Software Inc (NYSE:GWRE) have received an average rating of “Buy” from the thirteen research firms that are presently covering the firm, MarketBeat reports. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a sell recommendation, two have assigned a hold recommendation and nine have issued a buy recommendation on the company. The average 1-year price objective among brokerages that have issued ratings on the stock in the last year is $95.00.

  • [By Stephan Byrd]

    TRADEMARK VIOLATION NOTICE: “Insider Selling: Guidewire Software (GWRE) Insider Sells 209 Shares of Stock” was first posted by Ticker Report and is the sole property of of Ticker Report. If you are viewing this story on another site, it was copied illegally and reposted in violation of international copyright and trademark laws. The correct version of this story can be viewed at https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/3365485/insider-selling-guidewire-software-gwre-insider-sells-209-shares-of-stock.html.

  • [By Max Byerly]

    Verition Fund Management LLC bought a new position in shares of Guidewire Software Inc (NYSE:GWRE) in the first quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund bought 2,731 shares of the technology company’s stock, valued at approximately $221,000.

  • [By Logan Wallace]

    Guidewire Software Inc (NYSE:GWRE) shares reached a new 52-week high and low during mid-day trading on Wednesday . The company traded as low as $95.26 and last traded at $93.56, with a volume of 7356 shares changing hands. The stock had previously closed at $94.77.

  • [By Motley Fool Transcribers]

    Guidewire Software Inc  (NYSE:GWRE)Q2 2019 Earnings Conference CallMarch 06, 2019, 5:00 p.m. ET

    Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

    Operator

3/23/2019

Nifty likely to consolidate between 11,600–11,400 amid stock specific action


Dharmesh Shah

The Nifty on the weekly chart formed the strongest bull candle since November 2018, signifying acceleration of upward momentum as it surpassed our earmarked target of 11,400 supported by the strong market breadth and above average volumes.

The index continued with its positive momentum during the current week and formed a high of 11,556 in Wednesday's session.

Going ahead, we expect the bias to remain positive as long as the index maintains a higher low formation in the daily chart.

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The Nifty50 has rallied more than 950-point over the past four weeks, leading the daily stochastic oscillator to hover in the overbought trajectory (at 86), suggesting the possibility of a temporary breather cannot be ruled out.

Hence, going ahead, we expect the index to consolidate in the broader range of 11600–11400 amid stock specific action, which will make the market healthier.

Hence, any temporary cool off towards 11400 should be used as an incremental buying opportunity, paving the way for the next leg of the up move.

On expected lines, Nifty midcap, small-cap indices extended gains over a fourth consecutive week, leading to the faster pace of retracement of the last leg of decline, denoting a structural turnaround, boding well for the next leg of the up move.

We believe the breather in the last six sessions as a secondary phase of consolidation is an integral part of the primary uptrend.

Thus, corrective declines should be capitalised on as an incremental buying opportunity as a broader structure remains positive. Correspondingly, both indices have maintained the rhythm of not correcting for more than 14 months each since inception.

Also, the Nifty Midcap index has bounced from long term 200-week EMA, which makes us believe both indices have approached maturity of their price wise, time wise correction

Here is a list of top 2 stocks which investors can look for a period of 1-6 months:

Kansai Nerolac Paints: Buy| LTP: Rs 459| Target: Rs 550| Stop Loss: Rs 405| Upside – 20%| Time Frame 6 months

The share price of Kansai Nerolac Paints is at the cusp of a falling channel breakout containing entire decline since high of Dec'17 (Rs 614) signalling a reversal of the secondary corrective trend and offers fresh entry opportunity for the next leg of the upmove.

The stock has already taken 14-months to retrace just 80 percent of the previous 12 month's up move from Rs 319 to Rs 614, a slower retracement of the previous major rising segment signals positive price structure and indicates strength.

The short-term support for the stock is placed around Rs 405 levels as it is the 61.8 percent retracement of the previous up move Rs 343 to 499.

We expect the stock to resolve higher in the coming months. The favourable risk-reward set-up offers a fresh entry opportunity for upside toward Rs 560 as it is 80 percent retracement of the entire decline (Rs 614 to Rs 343).

Sobha Limited: Buy| LTP: Rs 457| Target: Rs 492| Stop Loss: Rs 422| Upside: 7%| Time Frame 14 days

The share price of Sobha is at the cusp of a breakout above the last four week's consolidation range of Rs 459-427, thus offering a fresh entry opportunity to ride the next up move in the stock.

During the current week, the stock has rebounded from the major support area of Rs 425-430 as it is the confluence of the following:

a) major trendline support joining the lows of November 2016 (Rs 216) and October 2017 (Rs 383)
b) the 200 weeks EMA

c) 61.8 percent retracement of the previous up move (Rs 380-514)

The stock has formed a higher trough in the weekly chart and is likely to resume a fresh up move. Among oscillators, the weekly 14-periods RSI has generated a bullish crossover above its nine periods average, thus supporting the positive bias.

We expect the stock to resolve higher and head towards Rs 496 as it is 80 percent retracement of the last corrective decline (Rs 514-426) placed around Rs 496 levels

(The author is Head Technical, ICICI Direct.com Research)

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on Moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions. First Published on Mar 21, 2019 09:52 am

3/21/2019

Q1 2019 EPS Estimates for Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM) Raised by Analyst

Hudbay Minerals Inc (NYSE:HBM) (TSE:HBM) – Investment analysts at Cormark increased their Q1 2019 earnings estimates for shares of Hudbay Minerals in a research report issued to clients and investors on Monday, March 11th. Cormark analyst S. Ioannou now expects that the mining company will post earnings of $0.06 per share for the quarter, up from their previous estimate of $0.05. Cormark also issued estimates for Hudbay Minerals’ Q2 2019 earnings at $0.06 EPS, Q3 2019 earnings at $0.06 EPS, Q4 2019 earnings at $0.06 EPS, FY2019 earnings at $0.24 EPS and FY2020 earnings at $0.30 EPS.

Get Hudbay Minerals alerts:

Hudbay Minerals (NYSE:HBM) (TSE:HBM) last posted its earnings results on Tuesday, February 19th. The mining company reported $0.05 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.01 by $0.04. The business had revenue of $351.77 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $306.75 million. Hudbay Minerals had a net margin of 5.80% and a return on equity of 4.73%. The company’s revenue for the quarter was down 17.1% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter last year, the firm posted $0.38 EPS.

Other research analysts also recently issued research reports about the stock. ValuEngine raised shares of Hudbay Minerals from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Tuesday, January 22nd. Raymond James cut shares of Hudbay Minerals from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating in a report on Thursday, February 21st. Credit Suisse Group upgraded shares of Hudbay Minerals from a “neutral” rating to an “outperform” rating in a report on Monday, March 11th. Zacks Investment Research cut shares of Hudbay Minerals from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Tuesday, January 15th. Finally, Canaccord Genuity cut shares of Hudbay Minerals from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Wednesday, February 20th. Six research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and seven have issued a buy rating to the company. The stock has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average price target of $6.92.

NYSE HBM opened at $6.88 on Thursday. The company has a current ratio of 2.36, a quick ratio of 2.00 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47. The stock has a market cap of $1.74 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.64, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 7.19 and a beta of 2.90. Hudbay Minerals has a one year low of $3.44 and a one year high of $7.95.

The company also recently declared a Semi-Annual dividend, which will be paid on Friday, March 29th. Stockholders of record on Friday, March 8th will be issued a $0.008 dividend. This represents a dividend yield of 0.24%. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, March 7th. Hudbay Minerals’s dividend payout ratio is currently 5.13%.

Large investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. New York State Common Retirement Fund bought a new stake in shares of Hudbay Minerals in the 4th quarter valued at about $33,000. National Asset Management Inc. bought a new stake in shares of Hudbay Minerals in the 4th quarter valued at about $60,000. Ramsey Quantitative Systems bought a new stake in shares of Hudbay Minerals in the 4th quarter valued at about $60,000. Gotham Asset Management LLC bought a new stake in shares of Hudbay Minerals in the 4th quarter valued at about $86,000. Finally, Two Sigma Investments LP acquired a new stake in Hudbay Minerals in the 4th quarter worth approximately $126,000. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 63.82% of the company’s stock.

About Hudbay Minerals

Hudbay Minerals Inc, an integrated mining company, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the discovery, production, and marketing of base and precious metals in North and South America. It produces copper concentrates containing copper, gold, and silver; and zinc metal. The company owns three polymetallic mines, four ore concentrators, and a zinc production facility in northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Canada, as well as in Cusco, Peru; and copper projects in Arizona and Nevada, the United States.

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Earnings History and Estimates for Hudbay Minerals (NYSE:HBM)

3/17/2019

Northwest Pipe Company (NWPX) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

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Northwest Pipe Company  (NASDAQ:NWPX)Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallMarch 14, 2019, 10:00 a.m. ET

Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Welcome and thank you all for standing by. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode until the Q&A session of this conference. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this point.

Now, I will turn the meeting over Scott Montross, you may begin.

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thank you, Andy. Good morning, and welcome to Northwest Pipe's Conference Call. My name is Scott Montross, and I'm President CEO of the company. I'm joined by Robin Gantt, or Chief Financial Officer.

As we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that statements we make in this call about are expectations for the future are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially. Please refer to our most recent SEC filing on Form 10-K for a discussion of risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

I will now turn to Robin, who will discuss our fourth quarter and full year results.

Robin A. Gantt -- Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

Thank you, Scott. Our fourth quarter income from continuing operations was $148,000 or $0.02 per diluted share. Adjusted for the bargain purchase, moderate sale gains and restructuring and acquisition related costs, our adjusted income from continuing operations was $2.6 million or $0.27 per diluted share compared to an adjusted loss from continuing operations of $1.1 million or $0.11 per diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Sales were $57.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared to $35.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. Gross profit as a percent of sales was 11.8% in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared to 5.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017. Ameron acquisition added about $19.1 million in sales. The remaining increase was due to the 23% increase in selling price per ton, partially offset by 12% decrease in tons produced. Gross profit as a percent of sales improved with the increases in selling prices per ton.

Selling, general and administrative costs increased to $4.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2018, from $3.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. This increase was due primarily to $600,000 in acquisition related costs. We sold the Monterrey facility in the fourth quarter for net proceeds of $2.7 million and recorded a gain of about $200,000. We did have an adjustment in the fourth quarter to the bargain purchase recorded with the acquisition of Ameron Water Transmission Group, and have a net gain of $20.1 million. The initial gain was recorded based on a preliminary fair value of the assets and liabilities, and we recorded some adjustments as we continued our fair value assessments. We may have additional adjustments in the future through first and second quarter of 2019.

As we noted last quarter, Ameron has been consolidated into Northwest Pipe's results. And excluding the acquisition related costs, Ameron has been accretive to Northwest Pipe's income in the third and fourth quarters.

Moving on to the full year results, our income from continuing operations was $20.3 million or $2.09 per diluted share, compared to a loss of $8.4 million or $0.88 per diluted share in 2017. We did have several one-time adjustments in 2018 and 2017 that impacted results, including the bargain purchase gain, gains on the sale of Houston and Monterrey, acquisition related costs, restructuring expenses and a change in workers compensation reserves. When we adjust the results for these one-time items net of tax, our adjusted net loss from continuing operations was $1.7 million or $0.18 per diluted share in 2018, compared to an adjusted net loss of $7.1 million or $0.74 per diluted share in 2017. Sales increased to $172.1 million in 2018 from $132.8 million in 2017.

Gross profit as a percent of sales was 7% in 2018, compared to 4.4% in 2017. The Ameron acquisition added about $30.2 million in sales. The remaining increase was due with 6% increase in selling price per ton, and a 1% increase in tons produced. Gross profit as a percent of sales improved with the increases in selling prices per ton.

Selling, general and administrative costs increased to $16.7 million in 2018, from $14.1 million in 2017. This increase was due to $2.6 million in acquisition related costs. We had an income tax benefit rate of 19.1% in 2018, compared to an income tax benefit rate of 11.6% in 2017. Our 2018 rate was impacted by the non-taxable bargain purchase gain, as well as changes in the valuation allowance and the tax windfall from share-based compensation.

In 2018, the company used $18.4 million in cash from operations. Depreciation and amortization were $9.3 million in 2018 and $6.6 million in 2017. Capital expenditures were $3.8 million in 2018, which were for ongoing maintenance capital expenditures. We have planned about 12 million in total capital expenditures for 2019, most of which falls under maintenance capital spending. At the end of 2018, have had borrowed $11.5 million under the line of credit. Today, we do not have any borrowings and have about $50 million in availability for working capital needs.

Now, I'll turn it over to Scott for an update on our business.

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

We continue to make progress on integrating the Ameron Water Transmission Group into Northwest Pipe. This acquisition has created a strong platform, this is expected to have major impact on the ongoing earning potential of the company. As of December 31st, 2018, our backlog, including confirmed orders, was $252 million, an all time record compared to $201 million in the third quarter, and $88 million in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The significant increase in backlog at year-end was a result of a strong fourth quarter bidding opportunities that we've discussed in our previous calls. The current demand levels, along with a stable competitive landscape should lead to a stronger first quarter than we've seen recently bucking the trend for relatively slow first quarters for the last three years. We expect first quarter to be similar to the fourth quarter of 2018 with respect to revenue and gross profit. Furthermore, we expect continuing improvement in revenues and margins as we progressed through the rest of 2019.

The following is a look at current and upcoming water transmission projects. In the Texas market, the SWIFT program has funded over $8 billion in projects over the last six years. SWIFT is expected to continue to fund major projects like the Houston Project in Bois d'Arc Reservoir well into the future. The Houston Surface Water Project is a major multi-year, multi-agency program with a series of segments representing 90,000 tons of pipe. Northwest Pipe has been the successful bidder on multiple Houston segments, representing over 150,00 tons of pipe. The production of the individual segments are in various stages from pre-manufacturing to ship complete.

There are additional segments of Houston project that will bid throughout 2019 and 2020 that represent about 35,000 tons of pipe. The Bois d'Arc Reservoir project by the North Texas Municipal Water District has begun construction and represents approximately 60,000 tons of pipe. Northwest Pipe was the successful bidder on a portion of the raw water line for Bois d'Arc in the fourth quarter of 2018. The segments that we were awarded represent approximately 25,000 tons of pipe scheduled to be produced in 2019. The finished water line for this project is forecast to bid in the first half of 2019 and represent an additional 22,000 tons of pipe.

In the Western market, the $2.6 billion California reline program began in 2017 and will be active over the next 20 years. In 2018, Northwest Pipe was successful bidder on to reliner segments. First, the 6,000 ton MWD reline project on which production began in the fourth quarter, and will run through the first quarter of 2019. And the 3,500 ton San Diego County Authority reline project with production that will run through the first quarter of 2019. Two to three additional reline segments will bid each year, representing 8000 to 10,000 tons of pipe annually. The city of San Diego's $1.7 billion pure water program is a 6000 ton project that is scheduled to begin bidding in the first half of 2019. The Santa Clara Valley Water District's $1 billion pure water program represents 8500 tons of pipe projected to start bidding in early 2020.

In North Dakota, progress has slowed on 140 mile, 87,000 ton Red River Valley Water Supply Project, as it is competing for funding with an urgent flood diversion project, which appears to be taking priority. We are hopeful that beginning on this project will start sometime within the next year. With a very strong backlog coming out of 2018 and a solid bidding year projected for 2019, along with a stable bidding environment, we expect a positive trend in revenue and margins throughout 2019. And because a substantial portion of the project is currently bidding on multi-year programs, we expect to see continued strength in the backlog, which should translate into positive business conditions beyond 2019. The acquisition of the Ameron Water Transmission Group further strengthens our position in the business.

In closing, as we move forward, we will remain focused on, one, the successful integration of the Ameron Water Transmission Group, two, improving the performance of the business by focusing on margin over volume, and three, driving cost reductions and efficiencies at all levels of the company.

At this time, we would be happy to answer any of your questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session over the phone. (Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Brent Thielman. You may ask your question.

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Hey, thanks. Congrats on a strong finish of the year.

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Hey, Brent. Thank you.

Robin A. Gantt -- Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

Good morning, Brent.

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Good morning. Scott or Robin, you've seen lot of improvement and profitability but I know it's still not exactly where you wanted to be. I guess two questions. Did the fourth quarter have any negative sort of price cost impact because of this big move in steel last year and I presume now it subsided. And then also, have you seen your gross profit percentage sort of markedly improve month-over-month? In other words are you sort of exiting the quarter at something above that 12% level?

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

You know, when you think about the steel piece, Brent. I think that the steel piece is -- in the pricing on pipe is pretty much kept up with the increasing on steel as we've gone through the marketplace. And in fact, I think the price on pipe has increased even more than we've seen. As you go through a period of time, as you know, we've grown this backlog to $252 million, so you continue to work your way through a backlog that, quite frankly, as you look at it chronologically, has an improving margin over a period of time which is what we expect to see as we move from the first quarter to the second quarter, to the third quarter of this year.

Really what I would say is, moving back toward what the historical margins level were for the company. So, I think we're kind of in that track at this point.

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Okay, OK. And Scott, I seem to recall, I think maybe last quarter, maybe your thought process was -- was 2019 might not quite be as strong from a bidding perspective relative to 2018? Is that view changed at all?I mean, you sound like you should be still able to grow that backlog as we move through the year.

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yeah, Brent, the interesting thing is, every year we expect to start out one way and it kind of changes around a little bit and more straight. So, 2018 was a really big bidding year. You know, there were probably somewhere in the area of about 250,000 or so tons of bidding. When you look at 2019 bidding wise, it looks like a year with the Municipal market and some of the hydro work and plant work that's in there, that's probably you now a relatively solid year that's around 200,000 tons when you put that all together. So it's not a significant drop off from what we would consider to be a very strong market.

So as we look at -- as we look at bidding as we progress through 2019, as you know, and you've heard really for the last few years, the first quarter generally starts off not only relatively slow from a result standpoint, but relatively slow from bidding standpoint. So you see, probably the January, February time frame are a little bit slow and then things start to pick up in March for this year, and really probably get to the highest level in the second and third quarter or sometime between the second third quarter. So, when we look at what we're forecasting our backlog to be, you know probably takes a little bit of a dip in the first quarter. But we expect it, at least at this point with the way the bidding is shaping up, we expect it to be relatively range-bound and stay within a range and settle out at a higher level than we've seen recently.

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Got it. Okay. Out of curiosity, I mean, this does sound like weather has been a hang up for you in-terms of volumes. Seems like that's been chatted about a lot across the industry and other areas of construction?

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yeah, I think weather has been an issue in certain places. We've seen weather issues in both Texas and California, that have created issues with -- I guess probably as much as anything getting shipments to lay locations in the field to the contractors. But yeah, we definitely have seen some weather related situations. And looking at some of the transcripts from some of the earnings calls that we've seen on other people in similar businesses. I would agree that we've had some impact from the weather.

Obviously, the winter weather in the Midwest and further East has impacted things too. So I would say its had a -- its reasonable impact on the -- what the revenues been.

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Yeah. Okay, I think that's it from me. Thank you.

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thanks, Brent.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Wright. You may ask your question.

David Wright -- -- Analyst

Robin and Scott, good morning.

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Hi, David.

Robin A. Gantt -- Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

Good morning, David.

David Wright -- -- Analyst

Brent asked my questions, so let me just try to drill down on him a little bit further. So on backlog -- I'm sorry, on bidding opportunity. I was going to ask and the answers you gave. So the total opportunity this year was maybe about 80% of what you saw at as last year.

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yeah, you know, I would say that's probably in the right range. But in general, when you look at a year that has this kind of volume and this is a pretty solid year that we would characterize a bidding year being in any normal time, other than, David, when you follow a year has 250,000 tons of project bidding. So --

David Wright -- -- Analyst

Right. Do you have sense of what percentage of last year's opportunities you were successful on?

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

When you look at market percentages last year, God, I would say that -- because remember we've only had the Ameron assets within the fold of the company for the last four or five months of the year. So I would say we were probably in the mid 40s percent of market share. As we look forward, we think it's probably somewhere between 48% and 52% in this market that probably settles out as a market share for us.

David Wright -- -- Analyst

Okay, so even with a lower opportunity, if you get a little more market share, that's going to push you up a bit?

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Yeah. And I think, David, just to add on to this, when you look at where the opportunities are in the market, we still see strength in the Texas market, which is where we were been strong for years. But we also see some strength in the Western market, and that's not just California, it's different parts of the West. So, I think we are located in pretty good spots to be able to take advantage of the tons that are going to be bid.

David Wright -- -- Analyst

Okay, and then, going over the margins. I like your phrase, I hope it's not deemed an official condition, chronologically improving margins toward the historical norms. What would you call the historical gross (inaudible) profit margin?

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

I would say that when you when you look at the gross profit percentages historically, they probably are bound by about 15% to 17% is what we've seen historically in gross profit margins when we've had good markets. I think as the longer the market stay stable and the competitive landscape remains stable, I think those continue to improve. If you look back to where we were in 2013, we had gross margin percentages in 2013 that for the year averaged over 20%. I think it was somewhere, Robin in the area of 21%.

So I don't think that's out of the question at all. I think things are setting up quite nicely as long as the bidding stays the way it looks right now, David, there's no reason why we can't get back to those kind of levels.

David Wright -- -- Analyst

And does Ameron with their slightly different product mix, does Ameron make it harder or easier to get to that gross profit level?

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

No, I don't -- I don't think it makes it harder. Certainly I think that, with the operational efficiencies and the administrative efficiencies that we see with combining the Ameron business in the Northwest Pipe, we see room for margin improvement, just based on that, OK. So, I think that when you look at the different products they have, one, they have that reinforced concrete product out of the Tracy facility, which is a -- more of when you look at concrete pipe, more of a specialty product compared to what you normally think of reinforced concrete pipe being the stuff that we make in Tracy is large diameter, heavy -- deep-burry corrosive soil, able to handle heavy loads. So it's more of a niche product. And that kind of a niche product generally carries a higher margin. But there's less of that niche product in the bidding environment. So -- but all in all, we think that the Ameron assets as part of the company definitely helps the gross margin profile.

David Wright -- -- Analyst

Okay, that's great. Last question, I'm going to call it personal. So you're integrating an acquisition, you've got new facilities, just kind of in legacy Northwest Pipe, what's your headcount relative to where it was directionally?

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

I would say the legacy headcount for Northwest Pipe of the legacy company is probably just below 500 in that area. In total, the headcount for both companies is, I think, somewhere in the area of a little over 700. And we originally got about 228 from the Ameron Group.

David Wright -- -- Analyst

I guess where I was going was just on doing less tons, you're getting more for them, but does less tons mean less people you know to compared to five years ago?

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Well not necessarily. I mean, it all depends on the mixed profile of the product that you're making. One, we could be doing smaller diameter, lighter wall product. It's less tons with more lineal feet. So it's kind of that kind of a combination. But when you look at the less tons is -- I think we're probably comparing to the script. If look at where we were with the legacy company through the July time frame, we were actually ahead year-over-year on tons. And it starts to get a little bit difficult when you look at the legacy company and trying to figure what the tons are for the legacy company because since day one, and when we got the Ameron assets, we've been bidding things as a combined entity and we've chosen where to put all those orders that best fits our strategic goals.

So it's difficult to tell just by looking at the legacy plants where the tons are. If you look at year-over-year, where we were versus '17 and where we are in '18. obviously, we're having more production facilities. We were, it's probably 27% higher in tons and for the year higher than -- in tons. But it's difficult to look at just the legacy plants because we're deciding where to put things now.

David Wright -- -- Analyst

Okay. Well, it's great to see the projects you've been working on actually make their way into the revenue line. And keep up the good work and good luck with the chronological improvements.

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Thanks, David.

David Wright -- -- Analyst

Okay.

Operator

Speakers, right now there are no questions on queue. (Operator Instructions) Excuse me speakers, right now there are no questions on queue. You may proceed.

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Okay. Well, thank you everyone for attending the call. Obviously, we are excited about the improvement that we're seeing in the business and the company, and look forward to seeing more of that as we go forward into the future. So we'll see you on the next call, which is in --

Robin A. Gantt -- Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

The early May.

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Early May. So thank you very much.

Robin A. Gantt -- Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And that concludes today's conference. Thank you all for joining. You may disconnect now.

Duration: 26 minutes

Call participants:

Scott J. Montross -- President, Chief Executive Officer and Director

Robin A. Gantt -- Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

Brent Thielman -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

David Wright -- -- Analyst

More NWPX analysis

Transcript powered by AlphaStreet

This article is a transcript of this conference call produced for The Motley Fool. While we strive for our Foolish Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.

3/15/2019

salesforce.com, inc. (CRM) Shares Bought by Polar Capital LLP

Polar Capital LLP lifted its position in shares of salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE:CRM) by 5.6% during the 4th quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The institutional investor owned 613,161 shares of the CRM provider’s stock after acquiring an additional 32,279 shares during the quarter. salesforce.com accounts for about 0.9% of Polar Capital LLP’s holdings, making the stock its 23rd biggest position. Polar Capital LLP’s holdings in salesforce.com were worth $83,985,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period.

Several other large investors have also recently made changes to their positions in the company. Chicago Equity Partners LLC boosted its stake in shares of salesforce.com by 9.7% during the third quarter. Chicago Equity Partners LLC now owns 6,530 shares of the CRM provider’s stock valued at $1,038,000 after purchasing an additional 580 shares during the period. Penserra Capital Management LLC boosted its stake in shares of salesforce.com by 29.4% during the third quarter. Penserra Capital Management LLC now owns 1,992 shares of the CRM provider’s stock valued at $316,000 after purchasing an additional 453 shares during the period. Achmea Investment Management B.V. purchased a new stake in salesforce.com in the third quarter worth $822,000. Commonwealth Equity Services LLC lifted its stake in salesforce.com by 12.0% in the third quarter. Commonwealth Equity Services LLC now owns 82,133 shares of the CRM provider’s stock worth $13,061,000 after acquiring an additional 8,775 shares during the period. Finally, Allen Investment Management LLC lifted its stake in salesforce.com by 35.9% in the third quarter. Allen Investment Management LLC now owns 18,240 shares of the CRM provider’s stock worth $2,901,000 after acquiring an additional 4,818 shares during the period. 83.17% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

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In other news, Director Craig Conway sold 200 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, January 15th. The stock was sold at an average price of $146.07, for a total transaction of $29,214.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the director now directly owns 9,198 shares in the company, valued at $1,343,551.86. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through this hyperlink. Also, Chairman Marc Benioff sold 10,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Thursday, December 13th. The shares were sold at an average price of $141.36, for a total value of $1,413,600.00. The disclosure for this sale can be found here. Insiders have sold 541,028 shares of company stock valued at $78,200,323 over the last 90 days. Corporate insiders own 6.00% of the company’s stock.

Shares of NYSE:CRM opened at $159.96 on Wednesday. salesforce.com, inc. has a 1-year low of $111.34 and a 1-year high of $166.15. The company has a quick ratio of 0.86, a current ratio of 0.86 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22. The firm has a market cap of $120.60 billion, a PE ratio of 110.32, a P/E/G ratio of 5.23 and a beta of 1.37.

salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Monday, March 4th. The CRM provider reported $0.37 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.23 by $0.14. salesforce.com had a return on equity of 8.06% and a net margin of 6.51%. The firm had revenue of $3.60 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.56 billion. During the same period last year, the company earned $0.35 earnings per share. On average, sell-side analysts predict that salesforce.com, inc. will post 1.29 EPS for the current fiscal year.

CRM has been the subject of a number of research analyst reports. ValuEngine raised salesforce.com from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research note on Wednesday, January 2nd. Macquarie raised their price target on salesforce.com from $174.00 to $188.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, March 5th. Royal Bank of Canada reaffirmed a “buy” rating and issued a $182.00 price target on shares of salesforce.com in a research note on Wednesday, November 28th. Robert W. Baird raised their price target on salesforce.com from $165.00 to $175.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a research note on Tuesday, March 5th. Finally, Zacks Investment Research lowered salesforce.com from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Thursday, March 7th. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating, thirty-four have given a buy rating and one has issued a strong buy rating to the company. The stock currently has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average price target of $177.62.

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salesforce.com Profile

salesforce.com, inc. develops enterprise cloud computing solutions with a focus on customer relationship management. The company offers Sales Cloud to store data, monitor leads and progress, forecast opportunities, and gain insights through analytics and relationship intelligence, as well as deliver quotes, contracts, and invoices.

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Institutional Ownership by Quarter for salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM)

3/14/2019

Forterra, Inc. (FRTA) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

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Image source: The Motley Fool.

Forterra, Inc.  (NASDAQ:FRTA)Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallMarch 12, 2019, 10:00 a.m. ET

Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q4 2018 Forterra, Inc Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following management's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session and our instructions will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to hand the conference over to Charlie Brown, Chief Financial Officer. Sir, you may begin.

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you and good morning to everyone. Welcome to Forterra's Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. Before turning the call over to Jeff, I will point out that Forterra intends to take advantage of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as noted in the earnings release, we filed this morning.

Please remember that our comments today may include forward looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from those indicated or implied by such statements. Some of these risks are described in detail in the Company's SEC filing, including our annual report on Form 10-K that was filed this morning. The Company does not undertake any duty to update such forward-looking statements.

Additionally, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures during this call, including EBITDA, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin. You can find a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure and other related information, including discussion of why we consider these measures useful to investors in our earnings release.

Now, Jeff Bradley, our Chief Executive Officer, will give an update on our business.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us on the call this morning. Our results for the quarter and the full year reflect the progress we have made on our initiatives and strategic actions. In spite of record levels of rainfall and many of our key markets, throughout much of the year, gross margins, income from operations and adjusted EBITDA margins were all higher in the fourth quarter and the year versus fourth quarter and full year '17.

In our Drainage business, our fourth quarter results validated our continued solid execution, despite record rainfall in a number of regions. Gross profit and adjusted EBITDA in the quarter and the full year were higher as result of higher selling prices and increased cost efficiency. Our accomplishments in Drainage reflect the benefit of our strategic transactions in 2017 and early 2018, our organizational realignment, our procurement initiatives and our focus on improving the operations.

We'll continue to drive the business for further improvement this year. In the Water segment, our financial results do not reflect the progress we made last year. In response to significant increases in scrap cost throughout the year, we undertook a thorough evaluation of the business. Beginning in the second half, we made senior commercial and operational leadership changes. We talked last quarter about the benefit of higher selling frozen our bookings and backlog, and those higher prices helped to drive sequential quarter margin improvement, in spite of the seasonally slower fourth quarter. Our operational initiatives have significantly increased our productivity, and we expect further margin improvement this year.

Turning to our outlook for the Company. I'm encouraged by the end market fundamentals, starting with highway infrastructure, the largest driver in our Drainage segment. We anticipate strengthening demand based on the favorable outlook in certain key markets, including Texas, California, Colorado, Florida and the Midwest. We're seeing the benefit of improved state and local funding measures and the growing pace of lettings in the first quarter, and we anticipate continued growth in lettings for the full year.

Our positive outlook for the residential and commercial construction markets is based on conversations with our customers that support our expectations for growth this year. In addition, the National Association of Home Builders forecast reflect continued low-to-mid single digit growth in single family home starts this year and next year, in most of our key markets.

In summary, I'm encouraged about the demand outlook for the year, and we'll continue to drive improvements in the businesses. We expect another year of higher margins and earnings. Charlie?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Jeff. In the fourth quarter, we reported income from operations at $5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $33 million, which was just above the midpoint of our guidance range. One highlight, I'd like to start with, is that our team has successfully cleared all material weaknesses in internal controls. The final material weakness relating to our IT General Controls was identified in October, and due to the technical nature did require some outside assistance. These unplanned expenses caused our corporate costs to be somewhat higher than our guidance, but the remediation work is behind us and we'll now focus on driving efficiencies.

In Drainage, we delivered higher gross profit, income from operations, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin through higher selling prices, to benefit our cost control initiatives and lower rent expenses. In Water, we deliver sequential quarter improvement in both our gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin, which fell short of our guidance to match prior year's adjusted EBITDA. Significant progress in operations, increased production capacity, while commercial efforts strengthen customer alignment. Despite this progress, weather slowed shipments and as a result, we're not able to fully offset the fact that the scrap market was more than 20% above the same quarter last year.

In regards to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $36 million in cash. Our cash flow from operations for the year was $15 million lower than 2017, despite higher adjusted EBITDA, due primarily to an increase in our ending inventory in both our Drainage and Water segments. The inventory increase was due to weather related shipping delays, as well as strategic decision to accelerate the normal seasonal build in inventory of ductile iron pipe to support our customers.

Turning to our 2019 outlook. We expect income from operations to be in the range of $60 million to $90 million. Net loss $38 million to $16 million and adjusted EBITDA of $170 million to $200 million. Our forecast anticipates continued strong execution in Drainage and margin improvement in Water, on the benefit of higher selling prices and operational improvements. The lower end of our guidance range reflects more conservative assumptions, regarding the weather to the balance of 2019.

Our first quarter is being impacted by above the average precipitation in many of our key markets, including Texas, Florida, California, the mid-Atlantic region and the Midwest. In addition to weather, we face a tough comparison to the first quarter of last year due to high steel costs. While steel and scrap costs rose precipitously in the first quarter of 2018, the financial impact was largely deferred into the subsequent quarters, as the cost moved through inventory.

As a result, we expect that our full year forecasted growth in EBITDA will be weighted toward the back half of the year. Our earnings release posted last night also included a summary of key cash inflows and outflows highlighting the anticipated benefit of lower payments on our tax receivable agreement and positive cash flow from working capital, as we bring inventory back to more normalized levels by the end of 2019.

We're committed to making progress and improving our capital structure and plan to initiate voluntary repayment of our term loan in the range of $30 million to $85 million this year. In summary, against the backdrop of good end market demand fundamentals, we are well-positioned to deliver improved results in both our businesses. Our conversion to full year guidance reflects end market confidence, as well as progress in our forecasting and control processes. And our plan to reduce leverage reflects our intent to be a long-term leader in these markets.

That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, will you please open the line for questions?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

My pleasure, sir. (Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from line of Rohit Seth with SunTrust. Your line is now open.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Good morning Rohit. We cannot hear you.

Operator

Alright Mr. Seth, please check your line to see if you're on mute.

Rohit Seth -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question. My question is on your Water business. I'm looking at a chart with iron and scrap steel prices and your ductile to iron prices. Since you went IPO that relation has been unfavorable, it's kind of led to where you are today, on the stock. But it's finally crossed and turned positive in January. And I just want to check with you if that reflects the reality on the ground? And if so, when you think that it will start to flow through the P&L?

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Hey Rohit, this is Jeff. Yes, it does reflect the reality. We expect 2019 in terms of scrap prices to be softer than last year. I don't have your chart in front of me, but I'm sure it shows accelerating price increases. So we see just really a softer year this year in scrap pricing. It typically takes 45 to 60 days for those costs to flow through our inventory.

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So the prices obviously came up significantly in 2018, from end of 2017 through 2018. There may be some just that softening, but it still fairly high. And we have raised prices to offset that, and going into 2019, that is our, one of our core issues is offsetting inflation with price.

Rohit Seth -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

Where do you think the margin profile can go in the Water business? What did you assume in the guidance?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

We are focused on improving those, as Jeff commented on. And, I think that, yeah, and so we've delivered, we want to stay conservative as we have. But I'm certainly looking to see improvement.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

As I said in my comments, we see higher margins this year for the Company versus last year.

Rohit Seth -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

I mean, is that all Drainage driven or what -- and -- can I know what other issue we're thinking about in the Water business? I think the Drainage seems fine, and you guys have delivered margins of -- recovered to where they were, when you're in an IPO largely. It's really just a sticking point on Water. The scrap been -- scraps coming off, you had your prices going up, that could be interesting. What other risks are out there?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

No, we agree, it will be Water improvement. Let me just first say Drainage, yes, we believe there is still opportunities for us to continue to improve Drainage. And that is going to be a focus area. But no -- when we are talking about improvement in both businesses for 2019. And Water opportunities do exist obviously, from where we have been. And looking forward, that is certainly going to benefit from the work that was completed in the second half of 2018. Again, as Jeff referenced, we made a number of management changes and brought some good new practices to bear that should be benefiting us early in 2019.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

And just to piggyback on that, we're pretty excited about the operational improvements, that we've seen in the Water business, that started in the middle of last year and have continued to improve through the end of the year. We see additional improvement this year, and that's really a function of the leadership change. We talked about scrap, our backlogs are strong in both businesses. Pricing is up and the backlogs of both businesses, versus a year ago. So, those things will all lead to our optimism for this year.

Rohit Seth -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

Okay. Can you just talk me through what's assumed in the low end of the guidance?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure, that is primarily the weather impact. It would be obviously not where we'd like to come out. But as you've seen in the past, weather is an impact on our business, we're on outdoor sport, and we have to be cognizant of that. But certainly we would expect to do better than that. And this being early in the year, we want to make sure that we give ourselves room to be able to continue to deliver within our guidance range.

Rohit Seth -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

Got you. And then last one, just on the homebuilding side of things, 40% of your business. The home builders saw order rates slow in the second half of 2018, but you're talking about increasing their community counts in 2019, which --, I think that's more relevant for you guys as you supply the pipe that goes into the infrastructure for the residential side. So can you just talk me through what you're seeing in your footprint on that front? And are you more optimistic on housing in 2019 related to what you saw in 2018?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

So I would just start with the fact, when we referenced 40% related to housing, that is, that is specific to the Water segment. And it's less impactful to the total Company. But the full year, the view is, as you said new neighborhood formation is probably the more important metric for our Water business than the houses themselves.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, in addition to that, I referenced the National Association of Home Builders to forecast they have there, which is low to mid-single digit growth. But we go back to our backlogs. Our backlogs are strong. Our backlogs are composed of residential, commercial, infrastructure, and that strength in backlog is across all of those segments.

Rohit Seth -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

Yeah, and on unemployment -- yeah, if you look at unemployment rates there, the strength that we have there will ultimately lead to household formation. And so we see that it looks pretty bright. Well, we've had definitely gone through a pause at the end of 2018. Our discussion with customers seems very positive going forward.

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from one of Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.

Ian Zaffino -- Oppenheimer -- Analyst

Hi. Great. Just honing in a guidance one more time. The high end -- what is that assume for weather is not perfect weather or that's you're assuming some type of other issues there?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Ian, it's good to hear your voice. Yes, we're not assuming perfect weather. We're assuming more normalized weather. So obviously we'd love to do even better than that. But as you know, there will be weather in 2019, as we've already seen so far. And, we want -- as we go through the year and we see more clarity, we'll give more clarity on our range. But no, it doesn't have to be perfect weather for us to deliver.

Ian Zaffino -- Oppenheimer -- Analyst

Okay, and then...

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

I was just going to say, if we look at 2018, we look at the extreme events in Texas, we would have September and October, very high amounts of rain. And just to remind everybody about the business we're in, our business is the underground pipe business. So when there is heavy rain, the ground gets saturated. And it takes time for that to dry out. As another business where everything is built above ground, you don't have to wait as long for the ground to dry out. Then in the first quarter of this year, we've had heavy rains on the West Coast, the Minnesota areas had heavy snow and very, very cold. Denver's had a lot of snow in excess of what we had in the plan.

Ian Zaffino -- Oppenheimer -- Analyst

Okay. And then also as far as debt paid down, you mentioned that's going to be a big priority. What should we be assuming for the amount of debt pay down? And are we -- does not preclude any acquisitions, so we're not going to see any acquisition this year? Thanks.

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure. As the debt pay down, I mean, we're talking of $30 million to $85 million. It's really applying all of that free cash flow, that is the result of the calculations we provided. Acquisitions, we will continue to pursue acquisitions. We have talked about self-funding those through the disposal of other assets. That's really just looking at our portfolio and managing it more effectively. We have, as you know, when we did the sale leaseback arrangement, we brought back several properties which we will be able to monetize. And that funding will be applied. And, as you might have noticed in the queue, we did actually complete an acquisition in the first quarter already. We've spent about $12 million. But again, we anticipate to offset that through our disposal process.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

And just add to that, Ian, the acquisitions we would be looking at and we're looking at a couple right now, are really on the smaller side. I think last quarter I talked about really looking at singles. So that's what we'll be looking at.

Ian Zaffino -- Oppenheimer -- Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks again, guys. Appreciate this.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Ian.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from line of Nishu Sood with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Timothy Daley -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Hi. This is actually, Tim Daley on for Nishu. Thanks for the question. So I guess the first one is around the Water segment. I appreciate the color there. And so you mentioned that margins should improve over last year, kind of driven by the price increases along with some, I guess raw material kind of tailwind there. But how should we be thinking about the impact of price increases enacted in late 2018, should have on revenues? Were those enough that we could potentially see revenues grow on a year-over-year basis? Or should we really just kind of be keying in on that margin line?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I mean, I think we're obviously looking at the margin line because that's very important for all of us. But now, we do see growth, we see the opportunity in both the price increase and we'll increase revenue as well as the volume.

Timothy Daley -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

All right. That's helpful. And then I just want to clarify on a comment that was made earlier. Do you guys anticipate that there will be margin improvement in both segments on a year-over-year basis? Just given the fact that there are maybe a bit more inflationary headwinds given the building material producers seem pretty positive on their price increases, sticking in kind of the mid-single digit, high single-digit range. But they haven't really achieved over the last two years. So if you could kind of just help us understand price cost in the Drainage and how you're thinking about it in 2019? That'll be really helpful.

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure. I think the overall comment is that we are targeting, getting price to more than offset our inflationary pressures. We're certainly supportive. We saw in 2018 pretty significant increases on the steel side. We understand that some of our other suppliers are also anxious to get price increases this year. We do believe that we will be able to pass that on to our customers, and this market where demands are very high.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Just add to that, steel is a big input cost on the Drainage side, and we see steel leveling off from the level we saw last year. Somebody had mentioned a chart on scrap pricing, if I think if you laid the steel pricing -- steel cost on top of that, you would see a similar type of graph. So we see that leveling off as well.

Timothy Daley -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

All right. And then just the prepared remarks you guys discussed that kind of the one -- first half of the year will be a bit of a struggle given the weather, steel scrap inflation, I guess the delay in kind of that inflection point still kind of weighing on the first half the year. So how should we think about the kind of net income guidance and the earnings guidance on a quarterly basis? Should we kind of think of any negative or net losses in the first half offset with a bit or partially offset with positives in the second half or is that simply kind of maybe a 1Q event?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

No. I mean, I think, the first quarter is just one of the most difficult to hit, it is our least impactful quarter ever. And it is -- it comes down as Jeff said, the saturation of the ground and then the continued rain has definitely made this very uncertain. And, we're early -- we're midway through March, let's say. And this is by far our most important month in the quarter. So we really have a very hard time judging that. So I don't think there is really much of a message that we're trying to get across besides -- we've moved away from quarterly guidance, because this is a -- it's a weather impacted business. It's much more about the demand profile that we want to get across. We see very good backlogs, lettings as you know are very strong on the infrastructure side. So we're well-positioned for success in 2019. It is more the immediate impact of weather in the first quarter to worry about. And I would not say, Tim, just to address your first comment. This isn't a struggle, we're not struggling, we are definitely focused on doing the right things, as you can see, we've built some inventory as we ended the year. We'll have to move that through our system. These are all normal processes when you get impacted like we have, as year end. Hopefully, that helps.

Timothy Daley -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Yeah, it does. Apologies, struggle probably wasn't the right word there. But again, thanks for the time and I appreciate the details.

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Appreciate the interest, Tim.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come the line of Matt Bouley with Barclay. Your line is now open.

Matthew Bouley -- Barclays -- Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask about that full year guide at kind of a higher level. You guys haven't given a really full year guidance. I think, since being public, Charlie, you did mention, I believe at the end of the prepared remarks, some improvement in forecasting practices. So why the change in guidance practice to that full year? I mean, I know you just mentioned weather volatility around, making it difficult on a quarterly basis. But what's giving you the confidence in kind of the longer-term visibility? And what are some of those changes you've made on the forecasting side? Thank you.

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure. I think the important thing for us is, Matt, we've demonstrated over the past year and a half that we can forecast. We can look at the quarterly and we can give you guidance that we can achieve. We wanted to transition into 2019. I think the important -- the first stage and I'm going to count that just one more time. We cleared our material weaknesses. And that talks about the back office capabilities, our ability as an organization, our financials, the robustness of that. We've spent a lot of time and energy over the past year, building that up.

So our forecasting processes have gotten better that's an important component of our business in our accounting process. So I think those are the types of things which we've looked at. And then on top of that, just, the demand area that we focus on, while we only have maybe a one quarter backlog, we spend a lot of time with our customers and we look at the longer term implications for driving their demand and that all gives us the confidence to move forward. So I think Matt, it comes down to a maturation of our capabilities as a company. So Forterra has tried to very -- tried very hard to demonstrate that ability to grow and be able to deliver as promised.

So, yes, I think that this is an important landmark for us to be able to point to -- yeah we're able to look at the full year. It does get us out of the trying to guess what's going to happen in the last few weeks of the month and gets us toward what we really see as the underlying demand, which is a story that we'd much rather talk about, because I think it's very strong and we're well positioned to take advantage of that.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Tim, in addition to that, one thing I want to mention is the strength of the management team. We have really upgraded the management team here in the corporate office and -- the corporate office and in the businesses as well. I mentioned in my comments we made leadership changes on the Water side. We've also made leadership changes on the Drainage side, and these were changes to just improve the management team to upgrade it. Same here in the corporate office.

We have today the best team and teams that we have ever had.

Matthew Bouley -- Barclays -- Analyst

Okay, I appreciate all that color. Yeah, and then I wanted to ask about the working capital side, you guided to generating cash and working capital in 2019. I think in Q4 you called out in the release and I believe in the prepared remarks that actually weather was a bit of an issue on the inventory build. But there was also a decision to accelerate the seasonal build in DIP. So could you elaborate on what was behind that decision specifically? And then just going forward, what does that mean around -- or should we expect, I guess, a greater than usual release of inventory in the first half of 2019? Thank you.

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure. So I think the build an inventory is specifically on DIP, was to address the concerns. As you may recall, this time last year, we were talking about some -- an outage in our major facility. And then throughout the whole year, we were really chasing, supplying our customers and keeping them with reasonable delivery dates. And in the third quarter I also made a comment at the end of the third quarter, that we were at operational -- effective capacity.

So it's important to note, we did not want to damage or hold back the demand from our our key customers. And thus as things slowed down at the end of the year, we made a conscious decision to build inventory. That unfortunately, that was a good thing for our customers. But as weather delayed delivery of several -- on both sides of the business, it did ramp up. And as you can see, it's almost a $50 million inventory impact on our balance sheet.

So that, that was not -- we did not plan on doing quite that much. But again, that's fine. We will move that through in 2019. And as we get your question is what the impact would be in the first half? As we bring that inventory down, we get ready for really Q3, which is our biggest quarter, as you know. And that we need to have make sure that we have good inventory on hand, because we cannot actually produce in the quarter, exactly what we need. We actually have to build up.

So we may still be a little bit high at the end of Q2. But as we go through Q3 and finish the year at Q4, we do believe, as indicated, that we'd bring this down $30 million to $50 million, and that offsets really what we've built for 2018 year end.

Matthew Bouley -- Barclays -- Analyst

Got it. Appreciate those details. Thanks again.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Of course.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Benjamin Burud -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Good morning, everyone. This is Ben Burud on for Jerry. Just wanted to start on, how end market demand is shaping up into 2Q? I appreciate that, obviously weather has been a big headwind, in 1Q and it's your seasonally weakest quarter. But, as we wrap up March here, can you kind of give us an idea how the pricing environment, how end demand is shaping up as we ramp into construction season?

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Sure Matt, -- Ben, this is Jeff. We track our backlogs every single week. We update them. And as I have mentioned, our backlogs in both businesses are strong. Overall if you look at the company backlog, volume is up and backlog prices up. So that really gives us the confidence going into 2Q, that we share and really the confidence that we've shared about the back half of this year -- so it looks good.

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah and I think it's both that is volume and price and those are important components for delivering the results we talked about.

Benjamin Burud -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Got it. And then on the cost inflation side of things, can you give us an idea of what you're seeing, if any, on labor inflation and also on the freight side? Can you give us an update there? Spot rates start to tail-off versus strong 2018?

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Sure, labor -- on the labor side, we see some inflation on the labor side, but we've got some great things going on -- on the operations side, to really take some of that labor cost out. We're seeing good results, last year where we continue to drive those results this year, so we're excited about all of that.

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, and I think, as freight is going to continue to be, it's important to us. We think that there is several things that we can do to improve that in 2019, not only will the rates start to fall, which we've seen. But also through efficiencies, we have been able to move some product, last year we had two truck. We should be able to have rail. We have railed into those markets. So with more efficient delivery, taking advantage of that benefit as well.

So I think there is good upside on both of those things. And as Jeff said, labor, while the rates will go up, we do need to pay our employees, because the employment situation is very tough. But right now that's been improved, I think Rich Hunter has done a wonderful job, our Chief Operating Officer has come in and looked at a lot of our processes and tried to take -- make those labor improvements that will offset the cost increases.

Benjamin Burud -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Ben.

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our next question will come from the line of Scott Schrier with Citi. Your line is now open.

Scott Schrier -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Hi, good morning.

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Scott.

Scott Schrier -- Citigroup -- Analyst

And Charlie, earlier you acknowledged that the aggs and cement players seem to be more aggressive in pushing price, something maybe they weren't able to get a lot of price in the past couple of years. You talked about, that you are raising price and you do expect margins to increase, but I'm curious as we think about incrementals and operating leverage in Drainage. Do you still -- do you expect it to be challenging? Or do you think that the pieces are in place to see a favorable operating leverage or incremental kind of number for 2019? And then just if I'm thinking about longer-term, how do you view the potential for operating leverage in the Drainage business?

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Thanks. It's a good question. We work closely with all of our suppliers, let say on the aggregate, the cement. I mean, we're a large consumer, not the largest, but we're a significant player and we do have good relationships with these suppliers. We will work closely with them to make sure that we get the best prices we possibly can from them. But at the same time, we will be able to pass that on. We feel good about being able to pass that on. I think there is an important component of this, the market is -- the demands is there. So that costs will be going up for everybody. We should be able to take advantage of that, I mean getting the ASP or Average Selling Prices up to offset that.

And I do think the other improvements that we make will allow us to pull margins through. But I would make the point, Scott, that none of this was easy. This is -- this will take a lot of work, it's -- as Jeff talked about the team, we have a very good team focused on, and achieving this. You don't get price without working damn hard to get it. And we're willing to do that and see that -- it will yield good margin improvement for us as we go forward.

We did -- Scott we really -- great job last year bringing in Rich Hunter as CLO on the Water side. He spent an awful lot of his time in the business and we saw great operational efficiency improvements as we went through the second half of the year. He is continuing to work with his team and drive those improvements on the Water side. But this year, he is also put together a fantastic team on the Drainage side, and we see a lot of opportunity there to drive additional operating efficiencies, which going to impact our cost.

Scott Schrier -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Great. And then I want to reconcile some of the comments and discussions about the back half weighting. But, you do have your backlog now, it's up year-on-year. So I'm wondering if -- you talked about lettings and we've seen public lettings over the past 15 months, be up significantly. And then we look at some of the labor data for highway bridge contractors, actually has looked good. So I'm curious if, do we expect obviously weather aside that April, May and June that this stuff will be rolling through and that we could see a lot of strength in some of these end markets in the spring? Or do we have to wait until the summer and beyond, before you really start to see a lot of that roll through?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think we're optimistic about the spring, again I hate to keep talking about the weather and rain. Spring is usually when we have a lot of rain. But in this past year, we've had rain throughout the whole year. But we're optimistic about the second quarter and the second half of the year. Our backlogs are strong, as I said, the contractors need to get back to work. I mean, we still have seen here in Texas, there are job sites that they haven't been able to get through for months because the ground is just saturated. So they're as anxious to get back to work as we are to ship product. So, pent up demand, pent up waters, lettings are strong. We're feeling good.

Scott Schrier -- Citigroup -- Analyst

And one last one, in the press release you made some comments, on some softness in Canadian concrete pressure pipe having an impact on the Water business. I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing there and what we could expect to happen there during 2019?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Scott that just -- it is a very small part of our business, but it just slipped. And again, it comes down to just the projects that water, pressure pipe, which as you recall, we exited in the US and it is more of a lumpy business. So it tends to have some ups and downs. And this was just down for us. It's very large diameter product, where we don't play much at all, and there wasn't much work. So it was much more focused on certain other aspects, which are lower margin in that specific business segment. But again, not a significant thing, it'll be pluses and minuses. And we'll be able to throw that comment in, as necessary going forward.

Scott Schrier -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Thanks for taking the questions and good luck.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Scott.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from Andrew Casella with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Andrew Casella -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Hey guys, thanks for taking my questions. Just actually just one, just on the debt repayment. When we think about the implementation there, is it your view that you will go into the open market to kind of capture some of the discount on your term loan, I know it's kind of trading around that $93 million, $94 (ph) million context, or would these all be part paydowns as you guys kind of think about attacking that maturity?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, that is exactly how we plan on going out at it Andrew.

Andrew Casella -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

It's about , which one is it, both of them or the latter?

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

We'll be buying it in the market.

Andrew Casella -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Okay. All right. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. And I'm showing no further questions at this time. So now it is my pleasure to hand the conference back over to Jeff Bradley, Chief Executive Officer for any closing comments or remarks.

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, everybody. We really appreciate your interest. We look forward to talking to you to the balance of the year. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation on today's conference. This does conclude our program and we may all disconnect. Everybody have a wonderful day.

Duration: 39 minutes

Call participants:

Charlie Brown -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Jeff Bradley -- Chief Executive Officer

Rohit Seth -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

Ian Zaffino -- Oppenheimer -- Analyst

Timothy Daley -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Matthew Bouley -- Barclays -- Analyst

Benjamin Burud -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Scott Schrier -- Citigroup -- Analyst

Andrew Casella -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

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